The Implications of India’s 1.9 Fertility Rate

Syllabus: GS2/Health

Context

• According to the recently released Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2024, India’s total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped to 1.9.

Major Highlights

• India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR), the average number of children a woman would have in her lifetime assuming she lives through her reproductive years (15-49 years), has fallen below the replacement level of 2.1.
• Replacement rate is the number of child births a woman must go through to keep the population constant from one generation to the next without migration. 
• The only states in India with a TFR higher than 2.1 in 2024 were Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh.
• Delhi records the lowest TFR at 1.2, followed by Tamil Nadu, Kerala and West Bengal at 1.3 each.
• In 1985, India’s TFR was 4.3 and has fallen at a rate of about 0.06 per year and there is no sign that this decline will reverse.
  • At the current pace, India’s TFR is projected to drop below 1.6 by 2031.

Reasons for Declining Fertility Rate in India

• Delayed Marriage and Childbearing: The average age at marriage has increased, especially in urban areas, couples are postponing childbirth due to career considerations.
• Urbanisation: Urban living is associated with higher costs of housing, education, healthcare, and childcare. Limited living space and changing lifestyles encourage smaller family sizes. 
• Improved Access to Contraception and Family Planning: Expansion of reproductive health services and contraceptive availability has enabled couples to plan the number and spacing of children.
• Declining Infant and Child Mortality: Improvements in healthcare, immunisation, nutrition, and sanitation have reduced child mortality which makes parents no longer feel the need to have additional children.
• Economic Factors: The cost of raising and educating children has increased substantially. Families increasingly prefer investing more resources in fewer children to improve their quality of life and educational outcomes.
• Demographic Transition: India is moving through the later stages of the Demographic Transition Model, characterised by low birth rates, low death rates, slower population growth.

Implications

• Slower Population Growth and Eventual Stabilisation: A fertility rate below replacement level means that, over time, each generation will be smaller than the previous one. Eventually, the population is expected to stabilize and later decline.
• Rising Ageing Population: A sustained low fertility rate will increase the proportion of elderly citizens.
  • India may face challenges similar to those experienced by countries such as Japan and South Korea i.e. higher pension liabilities, greater healthcare expenditure and increased demand for geriatric care and social security.
• Future Labour Force Challenges: A declining birth rate eventually leads to fewer entrants into the labour market. Economic growth could slow if productivity improvements do not compensate for a smaller workforce.
• Regional Demographic Imbalances: Fertility rates vary significantly across states, most southern and western states have well below replacement fertility, while states such as Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan continue to record relatively higher fertility levels.
  • This may alter the internal migration patterns, political representation, resource allocation and labour market dynamics.

Way Ahead

• Need for New Population Policies: India’s policy focus may gradually shift from controlling population growth to managing ageing population.
• Opportunity to Strengthen the Demographic Dividend: India still has a large working-age population, lower fertility can reduce the dependency burden on families and the state.
  • Greater investments can be directed towards education, health, skills, and productivity of the workforce.

Conclusion

• India’s fertility rate of 1.9 represents a major demographic transition, while it reflects progress in education, healthcare, and women’s empowerment.
• It also signals future challenges related to aging, workforce sustainability, and social security. 
• The key policy task is to convert the current demographic advantage into long-term economic and social gains before the ageing burden becomes significant.

Source: DTE